When news of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 broke right after Thanksgiving, many reporters, including AHCJ’s Tara Haelle and me, urged colleagues to be cautious about writing about omicron’s danger until more was known.
Since then, data on omicron has been pouring in, and understanding of the variant is shifting. During a Dec. 17 AHCJ webcast (Check out the full discussion), two infectious disease experts — Katelyn K. Jetelina, M.P.H, PhD., an epidemiologist at the University of Texas Health Center, and Joshua T. Schiffer, M.D., an infectious disease physician and researcher at Fred Hutch and the University of Washington helped to make sense of the research.
There is increasing clarity about the strain’s danger — it is three to five times more transmissible than the delta variant and can escape immune defenses provided by the Johnson & Johnson and mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine), the experts said. While a Dec. 14 study from South Africa indicated omicron may be less severe than delta, another study from the United Kingdom published on Dec. 17 concluded that it may be just as severe as delta. However, hospitalization data remains limited. [In the U.S., severe is defined by the CDC as an illness necessitating hospitalization.]
While there will continue to be a lot of uncertainty about what will happen in the coming weeks, it is more likely people who meet the CDC’s criteria of ‘fully vaccinated’ will test positive and get sick than during the delta wave this past summer. Given the contagiousness of omicron, hospitalization figures are expected to rise quickly around the country, the experts said. Those with three doses of an mRNA vaccine have the most protection against infection and severe illness, the United Kingdom Dec. 17 study showed. [The CDC says 61.4% of the country is fully vaccinated and about 29.5% have received a booster dose as of Dec. 18]
Schiffer and Jetelina advised reporters to stay up to speed on local hospitalization figures and whether it is triggering reinstatement of public health measures, like a pause in elective surgeries, limits on patient visits and mask mandates. The experts also advised the media to write stories about the importance of getting a vaccine booster, wearing more effective face coverings like N95 and K95 masks, and how to utilize rapid tests to ensure safe holiday gatherings. Further, they advised reporters to emphasize that scientists’ understanding of the variant will continue to evolve and change as the research pours in.
“The message I am getting from my patients and friends is how dizzying and confusing it is to continually be updated [about COVID-19] with mixed messages,” Schiffer said. “So, it seems to me like the best way [to communicate] is to level with the public. We are looking down the barrel of something that looks like it could be very bad. But we’ve been wrong [before] and models [can be] wrong. Hopefully, this isn’t as bad as some of the models’ project, but we have to prepare for the worst.”
Schiffer and Jetelina answered questions about assessing risks of traveling, ways to protect children during air travel and testing strategies for the holiday season, and the health equity gaps created by the cost of rapid tests.
In looking ahead to 2022 stories, both hoped to see the beginning of the end of the pandemic. Jetelina said to expect a heated scientific debate about whether an omicron-specific vaccine boost will be necessary. Schiffer advised reporters to look at whether the current booster shot and the latest omicron wave will result in most people having enough protection to blunt future illnesses from SARS-CoV-2.
“This will soon slowly tilt towards having more seasonal waves like we see with other coronaviruses and people having immunity so that hospital systems don’t get overwhelmed,” said Jetelina. “Hopefully, we are close to the end of this.”
