Multiple outbreaks and unusual cases of infectious disease are in the news right now. That means it’s more crucial than ever that journalists include context in their stories to help readers make sense of their personal risk for various types of infections and what actions they do — or don’t — need to take to protect themselves.
Recent headlines include a surge of dengue cases in Puerto Rico, a single case of H5N1 avian influenza in a person in Texas, a national increase in meningococcal disease, and a substantial uptick in measles cases and outbreaks across the U.S. The actual risk each of these diseases poses to any particular individual doesn’t just vary based on geography, and it may not match up with people’s perceived risk to themselves. That’s why reporters’ job in reporting on these topics becomes so important.
Paradoxically, the cognitive bias known as affect heuristic can cause people to fear rare events that are less likely to occur to them than more familiar and common ones. For example, many people who are terrified of flying — despite the extreme rarity of plane crashes — don’t think twice before driving in a car, even though more than 40,000 people die in car crashes each year.
Similarly, many Americans may worry more about a rare disease — like the human avian flu case in Texas — than a disease like measles which is far more common and contagious.
Broadly speaking, here are the questions to answer in any infectious disease outbreak story:
Meningococcal disease cases
On March 28, the CDC issued an alert about an increase in invasive serogroup Y meningococcal disease in the U.S. The total case count is low compared to many other diseases — 143 cases in 2024 as of April 9, with expectations of surpassing last year’s numbers — but mortality has been higher than in past years. So far, 18% of people have died this year compared to 11% who died in cases from 2017-2021.
Here are some important points to consider in your reporting:
Dengue in Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico declared a state of emergency on March 25 related to dengue cases, with 549 cases reported as of March 27. Here’s what to emphasize in reporting:
Human case of avian influenza
In several outlets and platforms, I’ve seen more stories or discussion about this single case than about the other three outbreaks combined — a good example of the mismatch between actual risk posed to people and perceived risk or fear.
Driving that fear is the collective trauma we’ve all experienced from the pandemic and concerns that avian influenza could cause a new one. Here’s what to emphasize:
Measles cases rising
Though perhaps the least “sexy” of all these stories, the one that should inspire the most concern is the collection of measles outbreaks across the U.S. That’s because measles is highly contagious but also extremely preventable.
We noted two months ago that the global rise in measles cases poses a threat to the U.S., especially given the lapses in measles vaccination that accompanied the pandemic. Last week, the CDC published a report about the increase in measles cases and the broader threat from pockets of low vaccination coverage. Here are the major points to cover: