Through this year, spending for health care will continue to rise slowly, according to a recent article published in Health Affairs by officials from the Office of the Actuary at the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
But slow growth will not continue. Starting next year and continuing until at least until 2022, costs will rise again as they did earlier, said the authors of the report, “National Health Expenditure Projections, 2012–22: Slow Growth Until Coverage Expands And Economy Improves.”
The slow growth rates through this year are a factor of a weak economy and a slow recovery, limited growth in private health insurance enrollment, and increased provisions that consumers share in the costs of care. The report includes detailed discussions about projected spending for Medicare, Medicaid, physician services, hospitals, prescription drugs, and private insurance premiums.
“For the period 2014–22, national health spending is projected to rebound to growth rates observed prior to the recession, although growth will still be slower than that experienced over the longer term,” the authors wrote. “This rebound in growth is based on improving economic conditions, coverage expansions in the Affordable Care Act, and the aging of the baby-boom generation. Expected growth for 2014 is 6.1 percent, with an average projected growth of 6.2 percent per year thereafter.”
To arrive at these projections, the authors used actuarial and econometric modeling and judgments about events and trends that influence health spending. “The projections use the economic and demographic assumptions from the 2013 Medicare Trustees Report,” the authors wrote. Included in the assumptions are estimates based on the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act and the one-year delay of the employer mandate, they added.
Of the nine authors of the report, five are economists, three are actuaries, and one is the deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group.