It’s a common refrain in the gun violence prevention world that states with loose gun laws often have higher rates of firearm deaths and injuries.
Some laws tend to be more effective than others. For example, a RAND analysis of gun policy found that child-access prevention laws reduce self-inflicted gun injuries and homicides among youth.
RAND also found when gun regulations are loosened, like through stand-your-ground laws and concealed carry laws, firearm homicides increased.
But not every state fits that trend. A recent analysis found that Idaho, a state with few firearm regulations, has lower-than-average gun violence rates.
Magic Wade, Ph.D., a researcher and professor at the University of Illinois Springfield, conducted the analysis and compared Idaho to its neighbor, Washington. Washington, by contrast, has more regulations on guns, but faces a higher rate of firearm homicides.
This analysis is useful for reporters regardless of whether they report in Idaho or Washington as it’s a good example of how to examine firearm violence rates and laws. It’s also a good reminder that metrics on how a state handles gun violence can go beyond laws. And it prompts the question, what’s being done in Idaho and in its cities and towns to address gun violence?
The findings
Groups like Everytown for Gun Safety and Giffords Law Center say Idaho is failing when it comes to gun safety laws. Meanwhile, Washington is considered by those same organizations to have some of the strongest gun laws.
A key caveat Wade highlights in his research is that the states’ demographics are not an apples-to-apples comparison. Washington has over 20,000 more people and Idaho lacks a major metro area. Washington is also a more diverse state.
Wade also compared firearm homicides in both states. In Idaho, 22 people were killed in non-defensive shootings in 2024, amounting to a state firearm homicide rate of 1.2 per 100,000. For Washington, there were 219 firearm homicides, or a rate of 2.8.
“From this, can we confidently predict that all residents of Idaho were less likely than all residents of Washington to be killed with a firearm in 2024? Absolutely not!” Wade writes in her analysis. “Gun violence is concentrated in urbanized communities, so comparing state-level data obscures meaningful city-level variation at the locus of most firearm violence.”
So, she breaks it down by each state’s largest cities, or cities with a population of at least 100,000 people, over a 10-year period.
Idaho has few cities with over 100,000 residents. Washington’s largest city, Seattle, has over 750,000 residents compared to Idaho’s largest, Boise, which has a little over 230,000, according to the analysis.
Of Washington’s top five largest cities, Seattle had the lowest firearm fatality rate of 4.3 from 2015 to 2024. Tacoma, Kent, Spokane and Vancouver all had higher rates, Wade found.
Idaho’s largest cities each have lower rates of firearm fatalities than each of Washington’s largest cities, with the exception of Bellevue, Wash., according to the analysis.
Wade questions ranking a state like Idaho as having the worst gun laws.
“Idahoans are at lower than average risk for intentional firearm violence victimization. What would prioritizing changing gun laws in Idaho accomplish?” she asks. “And if ranking Idaho the worst isn’t meant to spur us to act to change the state’s laws, what’s the point?”
A crucial caveat to her analysis is suicide. While she’s demonstrated that states with looser gun laws have lower rates of intentional firearm violence, they often have some of the highest rates of firearm suicide.
But her point that it’s not just about laws carries over to suicide. Prevention advocates and public health experts have long called for a mix of regulations — like red-flag laws — and community-based interventions — like encouraging safe gun storage — to help prevent suicides.
Story ideas
Reporters can replicate this analysis for their area. Look at your state’s laws and gun violence rates. How does the firearm homicide rate compare to the amount of gun laws on the books? Is there a connection? Is it more like Washington or more like Idaho? Compared to a neighbor state or a state of similar size, what do you find?
What about the efforts to prevent shootings that aren’t connected to laws regulating guns, like community violence interventions. What does your state or area have?
