The Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the Senate’s health care plan, the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), on Monday afternoon.
This came hours after Senate Republicans released a revised version of the bill that adds a provision to penalize people who let their insurance coverage lapse for an extended period. People who let their health insurance lapse for longer than 63 days but then wanted to re-enroll would have to wait six months. The CBO score does take that revision into account in its analysis.
The CBO found that, if this legislation were to be enacted, it would:
- Reduce the cumulative federal deficit over the 2017-26 period by $321 billion. That is $202 billion more than the estimated savings for the American Health Care Act that passed the House in May.
- The Senate bill would increase the number of people who are uninsured by 22 million in 2026 relative to the number under current law, slightly fewer than the increase in the number of uninsured estimated for the House-passed legislation.
- By 2026, an estimated 49 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law.
- Imposing that six-month waiting period for those who let their insurance lapse would, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation expect, slightly increase the number of people with insurance, on net, throughout the 2018-2026 period — but not in 2019, when the incentives to obtain coverage would be weak because premiums would be relatively high.
Here is an assortment of coverage of the CBO score:
- The Wall Street Journal: Senate Health Bill Raises Uninsured by 22 Million in 2026 Compared to ACA, the CBO Says
- Politico: CBO: 22 million more uninsured under Senate health bill
- The Hill: CBO: Senate ObamaCare repeal would leave 22M more uninsured
- Vox: CBO: Senate health bill doesn’t help the poor in non-Medicaid states
- Fox News: Senate health care bill would lower deficit, increase number of uninsured, estimate says
Other developments
- Governors ask GOP for time to determine impact of health care plan on states
- The AMA strongly opposes the Senate’s health-reform proposal
- Here’s where Republican senators stand on the health care bill
- Sen. Casey responds to Senate healthcare proposal with a Tweetstorm
- Pence woos Senate conservatives in Obamacare repeal push
- A look at some major Trump health care promises, and how they line up with the Republican legislation
And some interesting observations from Twitter about the bill and the CBO’s report:
The most devastating passage in the CBO report:
“few low-income people would purchase any plan” https://t.co/RiJZy8mrfz— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) June 26, 2017
CBO highlights mental health treatment as a benefit likely to be cut under EHB waivers. Attn: opioid epidemic governors. pic.twitter.com/qnPhfUuYUO— Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) June 26, 2017
State Medicaid Directors’ consensus: “Per capita cap growth rates for Medicaid in the Senate bill are insufficient and unworkable.” https://t.co/KUFx9XnxGH
— Andrey Ostrovsky, MD (@AndreyOstrovsky) June 26, 2017
rural hospitals rep: “Let’s not mince words. This bill will close hospitals, nursing homes. People will die.” https://t.co/zcAXmA19Ls
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) June 25, 2017
This chart from the CBO report really says it all: low income Americans are asked to pay higher premiums for less generous coverage. pic.twitter.com/hT51OqJAfs
— Sarah Kliff (@sarahkliff) June 26, 2017
Earlier coverage:
- Services enabling disabled to live more mainstreamed life may fall prey to GOP reforms
- Senate plans quicker action than House on its health care reform bill
- Health plan execs fear Senate version of AHCA would gut Medicaid
- CBO: Health bill would leave 23 million more uninsured
- GOP health care bill passes House but there’s more to the story
- Despite ‘repeal and replace’ vow, Republicans pull health care bill before vote
