We posted yesterday on what we knew about enrollment as we waited for the updated HHS report – which of course then came out. … So here are a few key points:
Marketplace enrollment: It’s a bit over 8 million, as we knew. There’s no solid data on how many have paid premiums, although the insurance industry is estimating it will be about 85 percent. A small data sample – which HHS said may not be too reliable – suggested that about 87 percent of those who got subsidies were uninsured at the time they applied. But we won’t have a really good grasp on the newly insured numbers for some time, although it’s in the millions (including Medicaid and other enrollment). As we explained earlier, the numbers may fluctuate because of special enrollment (and disenrollment).
Medicaid: We got some information but not everything we’d like to know. (Here’s the 23-page supplemental report on Medicaid including state data.)
- Medicaid and CHIP enrollment increased by a net 4.8 million between Oct. 1 and the end of March.
- In expansion states, enrollment rose by nearly 13 percent compared to the 2013 baseline period; in nonexpansion states it was 2.6 percent.
But these numbers are incomplete (and frankly a little confusing!). Millions more people were “deemed eligible” for Medicaid or CHIP – but some were eligible before and some were renewals. Some of the “deemed eligible” people are still being processed in the states (and some may have not followed through – we don’t know).
On top of that, as the report says, “The March 2014 enrollment numbers understate total Medicaid and CHIP enrollment because not all states are reporting and the data are preliminary. The data also understates enrollment effective in March because of some delays in receiving and/or processing applications” sent by the federal exchange to the states.
In addition, nearly a million people were added to Medicaid earlier in the seven states that did “early option expansions” after the passage of the health law but before January 2014.
Medicaid has no open enrollment season, so the numbers will keep rising.
OFF-Exchange enrollment: HHS estimated that 5 million people purchased ACA-compliant coverage outside of the Marketplace. These people are not all newly insured.
A couple of other things to note:
- “Red” states often enrolled a higher percentage of the target population than “blue” states that had flawed exchanges.
- Latino enrollment lagged, although the pace picked up in March.
For some help in understanding how specific states did, try this Urban Institute brief and this Avalere explainer.
